BTC outdated? ZEC the new trendy crypto coin?

**TheGooner** · 29 October 2016, 6:58 pm

So it appears that ZEC (Zcash) is the new trendy crypto-coin with people going mad to get a hold of a product that is just like bitcoin, except that it's new (*cough* and untested) but potentially the ZEC has true anonymity.

ZECs are currently priced at around 3 BTC - and have traded as high as $30K recently, having started at just $18 (0.027 BTC) in pre-trade?
BTC is also spiking in price in some sort of symbiotic sympathy.

It's complete madness ... all the comparisons of Crypto-coins to the Dutch Tulip Markets of the 1700's are coming true.
This won't last - ZEC is sure to plummet - but what is the longer term prognosis for the asset class as a whole?

-----------------------

Anyone got some opinion on what we will see?
Sherlock? You are tuned into this area quite well.
Anyone else with a view ?

**Sherlock** · 29 October 2016, 7:18 pm

It is an altcoin, as other altcoins, but even bigger scam. There are only few zcashes mined and most likely the owners trade it to themselves. The price does not reflect anything. Imagine that you take you own poo. You will try to sell it and you wil also buy it for one million dollars. Then you will claim to poo has value 1M USD, because it is scarce.

It has nothing to do with Bitcoin, even when Roger Ver and other bitcoin figures are involved. Look here: https://coinmarketcap.com/ all other altcoins falling. Why? Because the idiots who bought that useless "money" want to buy this new shining zcash, that will be even more useless. So they are selling all ethers and moneros etc and buy this new coin that no merchant is using.

Bitcoin is the only scarce cryptocurrency. Because it was not made for profit, ICO or such bullshit. That is why it has the inner value. It is the same as with people: the most trustable are those who do not count value of truth or lie. That is why even gambling uses bitcoin as money now. The true value evolves slowly from something that was created for other reasons. Satoshi wanted to change the world, maybe to destroy capitalism. He failed. But he created the best money for capitalism. He created the only value nowadays, that can not be forged. The value of cryptocurrency/bitcoin has nothing to do with technical side of the money (almost all altcoins after bitcoin have better code, because they are built on experience with bitcoin), it has nothing to do with people around the cryptocurrency (because if cryptocurrency has to depend on people [as zcash does btw], it is a bad cryptocurrency, that can be manipulated thru the people).

Sherlock? You are tuned into this area quite well.

Yes. I almost do not sleep nowadays. Making more money each day than monthly as an affiliate on Bitcoin surge (just HODLing). Big things are coming I guess (not with zcash though).

edit: now I am losing the money

**Sherlock** · 29 October 2016, 7:30 pm

Thus, the early investors paid about $1m for equity in the Zcash Electric Coin Company and 214,000 ZEC over the first year (about $4.66 per ZEC), while the most recent investors paid about $2m for equity and 132,000 ZEC (about $15.15 per ZEC).

Zcash rose to far more impressive heights on digital currency exchange Poloniex, with the price of 1 ZEC reaching roughly 3,300 BTC (or more than $2m), on 28th October.

So the price for the ones who created it was ~ 0.01 BTC. Then it was hyped in a "market" to 3300 BTC. This all happened before any coins existed. Today I saw price like 250K Eur briefly (~400 BTC), but then down to 8, 6 and now price is 3 EUR (anyone can watch it even at Kraken, because Roger Ver, who is also behind zcash, is coowner of Kraken).

**TheGooner** · 29 October 2016, 9:13 pm

Originally Posted by Sherlock

and now price is 3 EUR

I think you mean around 3 BTC or about 2000 USD.
*EDIT* Now 2.51 BTC and falling ...

Thanks for your thought - always good to read informed comment - even from a HODLer!

Agreed that THIS is madness - and it does reflect on the mania around all the alt-coins ...

This has always been my problem - that you can claim something is scarce (only 21m BTC ever) but when it comes to crypto-coins it seems to be relatively easy to simply create a new coin and jump on the bandwagon. (only 21m ZEC ever too).

BTC was first, BTC has 8 years of existence to point to longevity (and in computer terms 8 years is a LONG time), but in the end BTC is probably going to have to adapt, and maybe to fork, in order to find a way to provide the transactional bandwidth for basic consumers if it is going to grow much past the current level of interest.

My business will continue to SIDQ (sell it damn quick) whenever it gets it, while personally I may build up a small stockpile of BTC ..

But I do remember you saying that BTC will either go to 10,000+ or to ZERO, and I think that in the end it may be zero so it's important to have a plan to liquidate, or sell down in good order.

**Sherlock** · 29 October 2016, 9:53 pm

while personally I may build up a small stockpile of BTC

Believe me or not. Today I was thinking about you a lot. And exactly about exactly this. I was making bets inside my head what price must be there so you will start to hoard. I was sure it will be after the big surge that will happen for sure in future (unless we see the 0). What you just wrote right now quite surprised me.

I was also thinking than if you will turn to HODL a bit, then Bitcoin is a lock. Def not be scared to write here that you did not sell everything. I was sure I am done buying, but if you decide to HODL soon, I will buy even one round more. I must. Even when I am overexposed on btc like an idiot. If so careful guy like you can change so quickly (after US bookies changed and affiliate managers started to HODL), then there is just one way for the price movement unless some hack happens. Up.

BTC was first, BTC has 8 years of existence to point to longevity (and in computer terms 8 years is a LONG time), but in the end BTC is probably going to have to adapt, and maybe to fork, in order to find a way to provide the transactional bandwidth for basic consumers if it is going to grow much past the current level of interest.

Yes, longevity is one thing. But not everything. There are many coins that even after 8 or 80 years will not have value or usability. It is not that BTC was first and "seized the niche" of an independent currency. As I tried to tell above (and it is really hard to describe), the kind of value bitcoin posseses can not be ever replicated. All other altcoins contain the intention of early adopters to make money with the altcoin. There is nothing bad with making money, but here it is always disturbing. There is always a lot of uncertainity and asymetrical information and bitcoin is the safe bet.

Bitcoin forked many time, but with consensus, so the miners switched from one bitcoin protocol to another. You certainly mean the fork "with disagreement of miners" liek we saw by Ethereum. It certainly can happen, but I think the odds are lower than it seems. It is the group of people like Ver, who talk about fork and about blocksize and try to disrupt everything, even when their hashing power is very small. Miners and devs of core do not give a **** (I think).

There are finally some improvements: Segwit and Ligtning Network.
Segwit should be like bigger blocks + it will open path for further important updates of bitcoin.
Ligtning Network is a sidechain (also a blockchain, something like an altcoin that can exist only with the main blockchain /here bitcoin/ and can not be traded separately; sidechain is only a transaction protocol for main chain; it has no inner value). Something that will transfer bitcoins off blockchain. Should be implemented soon into wallets. Electrum will support Lightning. It will have two advantages:
1. Lower fees (it is not a concern for us if we pay 0.25 or 0.01 USD, but some people care)
2. Really immediate transactions
What I understood this Lightning Network will work like a tunnel around the blockchain of bitcoin. So one can open or close a connection between 2 bitcoin addresses (sender and receiver). Then there can be more transactions done and those will be immediate and no need to wait for confirmations. (But this will not be good for our preferably anonymous transactions with Bettingpartners, where we use new address always; we have to pay premium for it and do transactions on blockchain).

Please everyone do not take me literally here about Lightning Network. I probably messed up some things. In few years this post will be laughable.

**TheGooner** · 29 October 2016, 11:37 pm

For me to believe that BTC has a positive (non-zero) future and want to HODL some coins - I need to see two things :

1/ ZEC must be scorned by crypto-supporters and die a horrible death - or at least be devalued to a tiny fraction of a BTC.
One of my major concerms about BTC is/was "just what does make BTC unique and scarce"?
Why not create BTC V2.0 for 21 million more? Or in this case ZEC V1.0.

From what I read the ZEC concept does have similar crypto capability to BTC - and it promises truly anonymous transactions.
I get that it's a different reason for creating it (profit) - but the tokens function VERY similarly.

So if the ZEC is rejected by the community at large then PERHAPS we can start to believe that BTC is special.

2/ BTC must have Transactional Capacity.
For BTC value to truly grow in value it needs to be value both as something scarce (point 1) and also for secure and speedy transactional use.

If I cannot access the value easily, if I cannot spend it or trade it with similar speeds to e-wallets and/or credit cards then it's always going to be a techy product and will not appeal to the greater audience.

---------------

If neither thing happens then BTC does not grow in value and gets swamped by other alt-coins eventually as the new generation of internet speculators jump in and buy anything and everything and eventually support a crypto-token that DOES do both. BTC heads towards zero.

If (1) BTC is considered a special crypto token, but it does not grow transactions then it will be a bit like e-gold. Potentially valuable but not increasingly important. It will have value (like gold does) but will lose it's growth rate and accordingly it's speculator interest.

If (2) BTC grows it's capacity, but is not considered a special crypto token, then it will be embraced by more people but they will trade in and out of it to spend online and not always hold it. BTC will have value but other alt-coins will "steal" customers by being better value.

However, if both points occur then BTC can do what you hope it does.

-------------------

We are living in "interesting times" - as the Chinese say (often as a warning)

**Sherlock** · 30 October 2016, 12:38 am

Few notes:

- Btc still has enough of transactional capacity. There are only few niches, where is makes sense to use bitcoin: gambling&affiliates (obvious reasons for posters here), drug&darkmarket trade, remittances, ransomware, tax evasion, secret payments. This is not so happy neighborhood, but it is huge market cap. So big, that even if 10% it seizes bitcoin, its price will not be 10K, but 100k+. There is currently limited amount of transactions that bitcoin can process (3 per second). But I guess 90%+ of transactions are some kind of dull transactions, where people just manipulate the money between wallets etc. So if the worst happens and no network upgrades happen soon, bitcoin will survive. Just the gamblers and dealers will pay higher fees and the dull transactions will not be proceed, because nobody will pay the relatively high fees.

- ZEC will not die so horribly as auroracoin. You willnot see fireworks. But it will be significantly devalued and not widely accepted (I think). I realy like how it now fell to 1.5 BTC (at Kraken buy 1.5 sell 3.0, nice spread rly). Ether is not dying as currency fast too. It is fading away. Zcash will too.

- I believe the two conditions you just wrote will be met and you will fill your cold wallets, the price will be much higher by then. Multiplied most likely. And there will be much more other altcoins and all of them will claim to be much better than bitcoin. From the time litecoin was intreduced, there is always a looming threat of advanced altcoin that has to take over. But it is just an endless illusion.

It is definitely interesting times. I posted now something on investment forums and I feel like here 2 years ago, when I first wrote here about bitcoin. I am also probably really starting to pay all my employees with btc. One already locked price today exactly today at the top, so she already lost :/ F****** Skrill blocked my account and blocked all accounts of other where I sent money p2p in the past, because all papers and screenshots I sent them are probably not enough (I am using Skrill only for transaction with gambling merchants). I have no nerves for that. Retail banks do not like gambling. Even Skrill has now problem with larger balances and gambling. It is a Bitcoin time.

**Sherlock** · 5 November 2016, 11:23 pm

zcash trading at 0.66 btc atm, hopefully die out soon

this is weird

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